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There are a range of likely future effects of climate change, such as: - Continued increases in average global temperatures
- Rising sea levels
- Increasing intensity and frequency of extreme weather events
- Possible collapse of the thermohaline current
- Widespread plant and animal extinctions
- Impacts to human health
- Threatened water supplies
- Economic disruptions
Increasing temperatures
There is widespread scientific consensus that the Earth will continue to warm as a consequence of climate change. The question that many scientists are now grappling with is how severe that temperature change will be.
Because the various predictive climate models employ different methods and data, predictions about the severity of the impending rise of global temperatures have also varied. Nevertheless, most predictions fall within the range of a 2 to 5 degree C (3.6 to 9 degrees Fahrenheit) increase in temperature by 2100.
Although such a rise in temperature may seem relatively minor, it should not be forgotten that the already observed effects of climate change (melting glaciers and polar ice, increasingly violent storms, etc.) are the result of a temperature change of only 0.6 degrees C (1.1 degrees Fahrenheit). Moreover, the effects of climate change are occurring more rapidly than many had originally expected.
Rising sea levels
An expected and potentially catastrophic result of climate change is the dramatic rise in sea levels. Caused by the melting of the polar ice caps and the temperature-induced expansion of the oceans waters (as their temperatures rise, the oceans’ waters will expand), sea levels are anticipated to rise between 110 and 770 mm (0.36 to 2.5 feet) between 1990 and 2100.
Given that hundreds of millions of people live in low-lying areas at the edge of the ocean, these rising sea levels could lead to massive displacements of people. Indeed, some small island nations could disappear altogether!
Increasingly violent weather
As noted in the IPCC’s Second Assessment Report, global climate models suggest increases both in the frequency of intense precipitation events as well as, in some regions, the likelihood of dry days and the length of dry spells. In other words, climate models predict that both major rainstorms and droughts will become more common as climate change progresses. Although it cannot be stated with certainty how climate change will affect the weather in a particular area, many scientists believe that, in general, dry areas will tend to become drier and wet areas will tend to become wetter.
Moreover, the increase in hurricane and cyclone activity that has been observed over the last 30 years can be expected to continue and worsen. Because hurricanes draw their energy from heat in the oceans’ surface waters, as the oceans continue to grow warmer, hurricanes will grow stronger and more violent.
Next: Future Effects (Part 2)
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